A year after the dramatic arrest of Ayaba Cho Lucas, leader of the Ambazonia Defence Forces (ADF), key questions remain unanswered about the direction of Cameroon’s Anglophone crisis and the effectiveness of detaining separatist leaders abroad.
Ayaba Cho was arrested in Norway on September 25, 2024, on allegations of sponsoring terrorism and fueling violence in the North West and South West regions. His arrest was hailed by Yaoundé as a breakthrough in its efforts to dismantle separatist networks operating from the diaspora.
But 12 months on, kidnappings, targeted killings, and recurring “ghost town” lockdowns have persisted in some areas, even escalated casting doubt on whether his detention has weakened the armed movement.
Violence Outlives Its Figureheads
Security experts and civil society actors say the enduring violence points to a conflict that has grown far beyond its original leaders. “Arresting Ayaba Cho has not broken the command chain because many armed groups are now decentralized and self-sustaining,” noted a conflict analyst in Bamenda.
“Some no longer take orders from diaspora leaders. They survive on kidnappings for ransom, illegal taxation, and local sponsorship.”
Indeed, several diaspora-based activists including some in the United States have been arrested or sanctioned for allegedly financing the insurgency. Yet, splinter groups continue to operate, leaving civilians to bear the brunt of a crisis that has claimed thousands of lives since 2017.
Cracks Within the Movement
Ayaba Cho’s arrest also coincided with internal fractures among separatist factions. High-profile figures like Capo Daniel publicly broke away from the ADF, accusing its leadership of losing focus and exploiting the conflict. These divisions have created multiple power centers, further complicating prospects for a coordinated ceasefire or dialogue.
A Conflict Still in Deadlock
For many in the conflict-hit regions, Ayaba Cho’s absence has brought no relief. Schools still operate under the threat of shutdowns, businesses struggle with lockdown days, and villagers face extortion by armed groups and security forces alike.
Diplomatic efforts to broker peace have yet to yield a comprehensive political solution. The government insists it has taken steps toward decentralization and reconstruction, but separatist fighters remain entrenched, and violence remains a grim reality of daily life.
What Next?
As Cameroon approaches the October 12 presidential election, analysts warn that the unresolved Anglophone crisis remains one of the country’s biggest challenges. The question now is whether more arrests of diaspora leaders will help end the violence or whether the conflict has taken on a life of its own, beyond the reach of both Yaoundé and the exiled activists who claim to lead it.
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